MESSAGE
| DATE | 2024-01-31 |
| FROM | mayer ilovitz
|
| SUBJECT | Re: [Hangout - NYLXS] PResidential Electoion
|
I'm guessing this if from the Wall Street Journal ( you really should
include the URL so others can go back to it )
Personally, I realized toward the end of her time as UN ambassador that
she could one day be President.
Then, while listening to a news piece about harris ( I think it was
around June 2022 ), I realized she would be
the perfect person for 2024 as she is the 'anti-harris' and could beat
both biden and harris at the same time in any fight.
Over last summer ( I think around july/august 2023 ), I noticed that all
of a sudden both michelle obama and hillary clinton
were being mentioned in incidental things way more than we've heard out
of them in the previous 2 years.
And then it hit me. what currently passes for democrats are corrupt.
dishonest. arrogant. they are also devious
( look at all the fake scandals they came up with to hobble Trump over
the years and their ... creativity in the 2020 election )
The ONE thing they are NOT is stupid. Biden has a long lists of
negatives against him. Polls have for a long time shown Trump
can beat him - even independents and Democrats who may dislike him would
vote for him because biden would be worse; they show Haley could beat
biden decisively.
Dems want to keep the Presidency. So what can they do ? CHANGE THE GAME.
Have biden drop out of the race AFTER the
primaries so the primary season will continue without disruption with
most of the democrat delegates going to biden. At the same
time, you have all the politicized 'legal' actions continue against
Trump which has 3 aspects: 1) it slowly destroys Trump financially and
keeps him distracted 2) It drives Republicans crazy and want to show
support for him against all the Dems dirty tricks - which they do by
voting for him in the primaries. 3) for democrats, especially those
already indoctrinated and pavlovian conditioned by all the Dem
propaganda, it increases their rejection as a candidate for President.
It should also be remembered that Trump shares one particular negative
with biden- age. On 1/20/21, Biden was 78. On
1/20/25, Trump will be 78.5. After the last 4 years, there are quite a
few who do NOT want to vote for someone who is over 75,
maybe not even over 70. As a side note, hillary clinton will be 77 on
1/20/25.
Strategically, the best time for biden to drop out would be immediately
after the Republican Convention in July. At that point the
nominees are locked in and can't be changed. All the politicized legal
actions by this point may have driven Republicans in a 'we'll show them'
mode to make Trump that nominee.
Once biden drops out, the Democrat Convention in August becomes an open
brokered one, but with potentially a majority of those
well chosen delegates up to that point being biden's. At the Convention,
a new person who had not gone through the primary
process could be 'reluctantly drafted' to 'save The Party & Democracy'.
Based on observation what both michelle & hillary were
both suddenly returning to the public's awareness ( purposefully ? ) in
non-political contexts makes me suspect that michelle will
be that nominee. hillary CERTAINLY wants to be President, but the age
factor, and how disliked she is by various groups ( though
her arrogance may prevent her from acknowledging it ) works against
her. No matter what, it is extremely likely given democrat's
'check-box' fixation that the nominee WILL be a woman and very likely a
minority. ( fairly unlikely that they'd go for a triple-check-box
nominee who is also LGBTQ(....) as that might still put off some voters.
) The Republicans, so exclusively focused on biden as
nominee will be completely blindsided. By all appearances, they've never
considered, let alone commissioned, a poll where the Democrat nominee is
anyone other than biden ( not even with a poll with phillips as the Dem
nominee ).
Suddenly, it's a completely new game. Gone are all the biden negatives.
All the failings of the last 3+ years are firmly placed
on biden as he is sent off the political cliff and the new nominee is
presented to the voting public as 'clean & pure' ( comparatively
in their less-than-perfect historical memory ). If the Dems schemes have
worked and Trump is the nominee (trap sprung & closed),
Trump's advantage from biden's negatives go out the window. Now his own
age issue comes into play ( some media propagandists already try to
insinuate Trump's cognitive state has deteriorated over the last 4
years). In addition there is all the conditioning of
the last 8+ years that has many reflexively hating Trump. You will
have a race pitting the classic "old white male" vs a younger, probably
minority, woman. All of which will now have Trump behind ( possibly
badly ) in the polls. In a Trump vs michelle ( or
some other non-biden nominee ) scenario, the Republicans LOSE in November.
If we are lucky and Haley, despite everything, has become the Republican
nominee, the democrats are no worse off for their
efforts and the race has at least become somewhat more competitive for
them. Given that Haley has both local ( S.C. Governor )
and international ( 2 years 24x7 international diplomatic cage
fighting, a.k.a UN Ambassador), is intelligent & well spoken
( the anti-harris) with essentially the same 'check boxes' as the
likely nominee, there are very good odds that Haley would win
in November.
How likely is this scenario ? the groundwork for biden to drop out using
age & future infirmity as the (claimed) reason has
been built over the last 4 years with many already loudly saying he
shouldn't have run for those very reasons. As for the timing,
he could claim that the last few months have finally made it clear to
him beyond any self denials. And in the last few weeks
others have started to suggest michelle as a better nominee. At least
one media person has said that this has in fact been the plan for a
while now and the groundwork laid ( New York Post's Cindy Adams, who of
late has become much more political )
One can only hope someone working for Haley thinks to very soon run
some polls where the Dem nominee is someone other
then biden, including michelle and hillary. I suspect the result would
quickly put wake up Republican voters and change the direction of the
primary season.
On 1/31/2024 12:03 PM, Ruben Safir wrote:
> Opinion | Nikki Haley Should Go for Broke
> Peggy Noonan
> 7–8 minutes
>
> This shouldn’t even be a question.
>
> A great party is trying to produce its presidential nominee. Donald
> Trump is the leader in the contest so far, and looks likely to be the
> victor. But the cycle has just started (61 delegates allocated, 2,368 to
> go) and the party isn’t united, it’s split, roughly 50/50 pro-Trump and not.
>
> Nikki Haley is right to stay in and fight. No one has the right to shut
> her down. She’s stumping in her home state, South Carolina, and getting
> a lot of advice. I remember George H.W. Bush at a difficult point in the
> GOP primaries in 1988, after he lost Iowa. All his friends were saying,
> “You have to show you’re strong!” He’d listen politely, thank them, now
> and then ask if they had any specific ideas on how to show “strength.”
> They’d wave their hands and flounder. Finally Bush growled to his aides:
> How do they want me to show it? Maybe I’ll get off the plane, go up to
> the greeting party and slug ’em in the face, plaster ’em, maybe that’ll
> do it.
>
> That’s from memory, thus no quote marks, but I think of it when the
> subject is the well-meaning but useless advice candidates under pressure
> receive.
>
> For useful advice I turned to my friend Landon Parvin, savant and
> veteran Washington speechwriter, who tore himself away from work to
> offer practical thoughts.
>
> Go for broke, Landon said; there’s only one subject now and it’s Mr.
> Trump. Go at him, make it new. “Feel the freedom of your situation,” he
> says to Ms. Haley. “Self-respect is at issue. You’re not slinking off
> under pressure. There is something glorious about a last stand.”
>
> “You alone now carry the banner. Speak up for all the Republicans who
> have been demeaned, diminished and threatened by Trump. He can no longer
> hurt you. Pick up the sword. You don’t have to give Shakespeare’s
> band-of-brothers speech but live it!”
>
> Lean into being a woman. “The woman card is untapped by Republican women
> because they don’t like identity politics.” But the suburbs will
> appreciate it, and Mr. Trump is going after you as a woman, insulting
> how you present yourself, calling you “birdbrain.” “You were once in the
> Little Miss Bamberg, S.C., pageant and sang ‘This Land Is Your Land.’
> That’s a beautiful thing for the daughter of immigrants. Trump
> desecrates such images, this man who owned the Miss USA pageant and
> grabbed women by certain parts. This is bigger than you. Speak up for
> Republican women.”
>
> It’s OK to note you beat Joe Biden in the polls while with Mr. Trump
> it’s a toss-up, fine to point out that Mr. Trump has lost a step, but be
> careful. “Do it with humor or you’ll look like you want to stand on his
> ventilator tube.”
>
> But the issue is Mr. Trump’s nature. Start, Landon says, with something
> like this: “Remember when Trump said he could shoot somebody in the
> middle of Fifth Avenue and people would still vote for him? Well, if he
> would try to shoot somebody in the middle of the street here in South
> Carolina, we would return fire. And that is what I intend to do today.”
>
> “Don’t attack with anger, just quote the terrible, terrible things he
> says about specific people and larger groups. It is not right what he
> says, and on some level most Trump supporters know it. Make fun of his
> self-importance and self-regard. Take on the Great Pumpkin far away in
> Mar-a-Lago. Show that he’s out of control, that he has no rails, no
> boundaries. Quote the past few days’ overnight rants on social media.
> Let the audience draw the conclusion about whether this man should be
> returned to the presidency.” Quote his former chiefs of staff and
> cabinet secretaries who say he has no business in the Oval Office. “Let
> that settle in.”
>
> More: “Don’t be strident, don’t strain your voice, don’t try too hard.
> When I was writing for Ronald Reagan, I would give him a sure-fire,
> tough applause line, and he would often deliver it gently, seeking no
> applause. And yet it landed, and he looked the stronger, the bigger and
> the more genial for it. Don’t yell at Trump, be sad for him.”
>
> “Let me talk about stereotypes, as unfair as they are, because some
> voters think in them. You are the Asian girl in the front of the class
> with her hand up. You’re smart, you did the work. Trump is the blond
> jock in the back, cracking jokes and popping gum. Gently smack that gum
> out of his mouth. Have some fun going after him, not in a Chris Christie
> perturbed way but as someone who seems to enjoy the give and take of
> battle.”
>
> Another thought: Admit you are not as entertaining or maybe exciting as
> he is, but that’s OK, you’re running not to entertain but to lead. A
> rabid squirrel in a chemistry lab is exciting to watch but can do a lot
> of damage. You believe in old-fashioned values like professionalism and
> capability. “I am here to capably close the border. Wouldn’t that be the
> real excitement? I’m here to capably force the executive agencies to end
> their woke, partisan nonsense. Wouldn’t it be exciting if somebody got
> that done?” “Doing the real job of the presidency so that the American
> people benefit actually is exciting.” Perhaps one day when she worked
> for Mr. Trump she saw the blubbery self-pity kick in; perhaps she wanted
> to shake him by the shoulders and say snap out of it, we have a country
> to save.
>
> Mr. Trump is currently in a rage cycle and Ms. Haley is likely expecting
> a new nickname—Tricky Nikki, whatever. But nothing is below Mr. Trump
> and he may go more off-color than that. Staff can respond, but a
> reporter will catch Ms. Haley going into an event and demand reaction.
> Landon suggests, in a confiding tone, “Yes. I heard Stormy Daniels gave
> him that.”
>
> Don’t be afraid of pulling the heart strings. You’re home in the state
> that made you. The people you’re talking to are your fellow Republicans.
> Whatever they decide you’ll always remember you were a child there, a
> student, a young bride. You are of them. Landon likes “When I walk into
> that old White House, I will be thinking of one of our state mottos,
> ‘While I breathe.’ While I breathe, I’ll be thanking you for how you
> prepared me for this moment.”
>
> “You can’t go wrong with gratitude, and grace for that matter, which are
> concepts her opponent does not grasp.”
>
> Landon once told me of a difference between writing for women in public
> life and for men. Men like to tell personal and emotional stories
> because they think it means they’re sensitive. Women are more likely to
> fear it will make them look weak—“She got all weepy.”
>
> Ms. Haley, he suspects, may be reticent in part because she was trained
> as an accountant—just the numbers, please. His advice: “Slow down your
> pace, soften your voice, tell an honest story. That is what people want,
> not the grandiosity of the man you are running against. Nikki, it’s time
> to go to your core.”
_______________________________________________
Hangout mailing list
Hangout-at-nylxs.com
http://lists.mrbrklyn.com/mailman/listinfo/hangout
|
|
