MESSAGE
| DATE | 2020-11-02 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] Sleep Well tonight - everythign will OK
|
Kim Jong Un Marks 75 Years of North Korean Communism With Giant New Missile
Timothy W. Martin and Andrew Jeong
8-10 minutes
SEOUL—North Korea celebrated 75 years of communism with a military
parade at which it unveiled an intercontinental missile that experts say
is likely larger than anything else like it on Earth.
The Saturday event, the country’s first military parade in two years,
signaled a shift back to the more strident approach Pyongyang long took
before softening its stance amid nuclear talks with the Trump
administration that are now stalled.
The well-orchestrated ceremony, which included rumbling tanks,
goose-stepping soldiers and fireworks, happened overnight and aired on a
tape-delayed broadcast on state television. It seemed to flaunt the
regime’s confidence in its coronavirus pandemic response: thousands of
unmasked spectators crowded close together.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, wearing glasses and a gray suit,
entered as fireworks shot off into the pitch-black sky. He strolled to a
balcony that overlooked the massive flag-waving crowd packed with
soldiers and elites, including his sister, Kim Yo Jong. Tearing up at
times during an emotional 25-minute speech, Mr. Kim thanked his military
for contending with recent floods and the pandemic, repeating the
country’s claim it has zero Covid-19 cases.
State TV showed spectators crying and repeatedly shouting “Man-sei!” or
“Long live!” Mr. Kim didn’t mention President Trump or the U.S. nor did
he issue any direct threats. He expressed hopes that after the pandemic
passed, North and South Koreans could once again join hands.
“Our war deterrence will never be used as a means for pre-emptive
strike. But if,” said Mr. Kim, pausing for a moment, “and if any forces
infringes upon the security of our state, I will enlist all our most
powerful offensive strength.”
North Korea’s New Push to Export Its Propaganda
0:00 / 6:14
3:51
North Korea’s New Push to Export Its Propaganda
North Korea’s New Push to Export Its Propaganda
A far cry from hawkish newscasts and displays of the regime’s weapons
arsenal, North Korea’s bloggers showcase a softer side of life in
Pyongyang. Here’s how the country is revamping its propaganda machine to
target new audiences who speak English, French and Chinese. (Originally
published Aug. 31, 2020) Photo composite: Sharon Shi
That potential strength was on full display at the Saturday military
parade held at Kim Il Sung square in central Pyongyang, an event
engineered for both domestic spectacle and outward signaling.
Mr. Kim began the year vowing to introduce a new strategic weapon, while
saying he no longer felt bound by a self-imposed moratorium on
long-range tests. The North hasn’t yet conducted any such launches.
But on Saturday, Pyongyang left little doubt over what the new strategic
weapon might be, showing off what weapons experts say is likely the
largest transportable ICBM ever produced.
North Korean state media released this picture of fireworks during the
parade.
Photo: kcna/Reuters
The weapon’s predecessor, dubbed the Hwasong-15, was carried on a
massive truck with nine axles at a previous military parade, boasting an
estimated length of about 70 feet. It had the capacity to potentially
carry up to three warheads inside, some missile experts said.
The ICBM unveiled Saturday required a vehicle with 11 axles, suggesting
a major upgrade in size. Based on an initial assessment, Pyongyang’s new
ICBM may be large enough to carry five or more warheads, said Melissa
Hanham, deputy director at the Open Nuclear Network, a research group
based in Vienna.
“It’s huge,” Ms. Hanham said. “This presents a new problem for the
already shaky U.S. missile-defense system.”
The U.S. relies on systems that can shoot down a single missile launched
by an enemy, Ms. Hanham added, so a weapon that can carry multiple
warheads poses extra difficulty.
But bigger isn’t necessarily better, given that Pyongyang’s new weapon
relies on liquid—rather than solid—fuel. That means the mammoth ICBM
must be accompanied by a caravan of vehicles for transportation and
fueling before launch, said Scott LaFoy, a satellite-imagery and
ballistic-missile analyst based in Washington.
Such weapons “historically are fueled on their launchpad, which means
they have hours of exposure to satellites and adversarial intelligence,”
Mr. LaFoy said.
The North also rolled out a new weapon designed to be fired from a
submarine. This development was important because Pyongyang’s
submarine-launched missiles use solid fuel that require far less setup
time, so the advancements may be a bridge for using that technology in
ICBMs and other land-based weaponry, said Vipin Narang, a North Korea
expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
But parading around new weapons, even the ICBM, is unlikely to be
received as a major provocation to the U.S., security experts say.
“A parade is a way to show improvements they made, without being unduly
provocative prior to elections” in the U.S., said Markus Garlauskus, a
former U.S. intelligence official.
North Korea Unveils Giant New Missile at Military Parade
0:00 / 0:55
0:34
North Korea Unveils Giant New Missile at Military Parade
North Korea Unveils Giant New Missile at Military Parade
North Korea unveiled an intercontinental missile Saturday that experts
say is likely larger than anything else like it on Earth, as the country
celebrated 75 years of communism with a military parade. Photo:
KCNA/KNS/AFP via Getty Images
The Trump administration has largely shrugged off more than a dozen
North Korean weapons tests since April 2019 because those launches
didn’t feature an ICBM or a nuclear test. Mr. Trump, who has met Mr. Kim
three times, has frequently pointed to the two leaders’ close relations.
But nuclear talks between the U.S. and the North remain gridlocked since
last year’s summit in Hanoi that abruptly ended without a deal.
The North last conducted a nuclear test in September 2017, while its
most-recent ICBM launch occurred about three months later. U.S. Forces
Korea has said the North’s Hwasong-15 ICBM is capable of reaching
anywhere in the U.S. mainland. South Korean officials estimated the
North’s last nuclear test had an explosive yield five times that of the
atomic bomb the U.S. dropped on Nagasaki, Japan, in 1945.
The much-anticipated military parade unfolded with typical North Korean
intrigue. Analysts had expected the event would occur midmorning, like
many previous parades. But by the afternoon, South Korea’s military said
it believed the parade had been held in the early hours of Saturday.
North Korea’s state television started its taped broadcast around 7 p.m.
local time.
“We clarify that our war deterrent is being developed not for aiming at
others,” Mr. Kim said, his voice shaking at times with emotion. “We are
developing it in order to defend ourselves.”
The parade was intended to inject some national pride for North Koreans
contending with sanctions, flood damage and the pandemic, while to the
external audience the flash of military hardware was a face-saving
display of national might, said Soo Kim, a North Korean expert at Rand
Corp., the policy think tank.
“So long as Pyongyang is able to build and improve upon its nuclear and
missile capabilities—and the international community continues to
tolerate and accept these as part of the bargain, the regime will
maintain the upper hand,” said Ms. Kim, a former Central Intelligence
Agency analyst. “Time is on North Korea’s side.”
--
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