" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);=
padding-left:1ex">Famine Risk as Supplies of Vital Fertilizer Dwindle, Scie=
ntists Warn



The national security threat of a dearth of phosphorus may not be as

obvious as others, but it=E2=80=99s just as real.

Danny Wood via AP

Phosphorus is vital for modern agriculture and supplies are dwindling.

Danny Wood via AP

DEAN KARAYANIS

DEAN KARAYANIS

Monday, March 27, 202306:14:02 am



Scientists are warning that we=E2=80=99re running out of phosphate, a keyr>
fertilizer for the crops that feed earth=E2=80=99s eight billion people. Th=
is

raises the danger of famine unless agriculture innovates new ways of

prompting exhausted soil to bring forth its bounty.



=E2=80=9CWe have reached a critical turning point,=E2=80=9D a professor of =
Soil and

Water Science at the U.K.=E2=80=99s Lancaster University, Philip Haygarth, =
tells

the Guardian. =E2=80=9CWe might be able to turn back but we have really got=
to

pull ourselves together and be an awful lot smarter in the way we use

phosphorus.=E2=80=9D



=C2=A0Fail, Mr. Haygarth warns, and =E2=80=9Cwe face a calamity that we hav=
e termed

=E2=80=98phosphogeddon.=E2=80=99=E2=80=9D The warning echoes those of the v=
isionary writer,

Isaac Asimov. =E2=80=9CLife can multiply until all the phosphorus is gone,=
=E2=80=9D he

said, =E2=80=9Cand then there is an inexorable halt which nothing can preve=
nt.=E2=80=9D



=E2=80=9CNo farmers, no food,=E2=80=9D reads a popular bumper sticker in Am=
erica=E2=80=99s

breadbasket, pushing back against the perception that produce and meat

spring by spontaneous generation on supermarket shelves. Lost in the

messaging is the role of phosphorus, sometimes called =E2=80=9Cthe oil of o=
ur time.=E2=80=9D



=E2=80=9CIn a few years,=E2=80=9D a senior research scientist at Rothamsted=
Research,

Dr. Martin Blackwell, said back in 2019, =E2=80=9Cit could be a political i=
ssue

with some countries effectively controlling the production of food by

having control of rock phosphate supplies.=E2=80=9D



Low prices have led to using it as if there=E2=80=99s no end in sight, caus=
ing

problems such as runoff leading to algae blooms and poisoning

reservoirs, a subject at the UN=E2=80=99s first water conference in 42 year=
s

held last week.



Hennig Brand is credited with identifying phosphorus in 1669, and

humanity has spent the ensuing centuries studying how to harness its

many properties, with 13 scientists earning Nobel Prizes for their work

in the field.



Industrial mining of phosphorus-rich guano, or bird excrement, began in

the mid-1800s, and the resource became so precious that in his 1850

State of the Union message, President Fillmore pledged =E2=80=9CNothing wil=
l be

omitted on my part=E2=80=9D to secure America=E2=80=99s supply.



=E2=80=9CPeruvian guano has become so desirable an article to the agricultu=
ral

interest of the United States,=E2=80=9D Fillmore said, =E2=80=9Cthat it is =
the duty of

the government to employ all the means properly in its power for the

purpose of causing that article to be imported into the country at a

reasonable price.=E2=80=9D



Today, America =E2=80=9Cmines and consumes about 23 million tons of phospha=
te

rock per year,=E2=80=9D according to the EPA, whittling known domestic rese=
rves

down by 99 percent. =E2=80=9CAt current rates of use,=E2=80=9D Dr. Blackwel=
l said, =E2=80=9Ca

lot of countries are set to run out of their domestic supply in the next>
generation.=E2=80=9D



Those countries at risk include America, Communist China, and India.

Together, Morocco, Communist China, Algeria, and Syria, sit on over 80

percent of rock phosphate. The national security threat of this may not

be as obvious as others, but it=E2=80=99s just as real.



In his new book, =E2=80=9CThe Devil=E2=80=99s Element: Phosphorus and a Wor=
ld Out of

Balance,=E2=80=9D a Pulitzer Prize finalist, Daniel Egan, =E2=80=9Cexplores=
the alarming

reality that diminishing access to phosphorus poses a threat to the food>
system worldwide =E2=80=94 which risks rising conflict and even war.=E2=80=
=9D



Two centuries ago, the Guano Wars raged in South America. Spain and Peru>
fought over deposits in 1864, while Bolivia, Chile, and Peru spilled

blood over bird droppings in 1879. So insatiable is humanity=E2=80=99s appe=
tite

that even the taboo of grave robbing proved no obstacle.



The director of the Center for Battlefield Archaeology at the University>
of Glasgow, Tony Pollard, cites reports of bones from the Battle of

Waterloo being ground into fertilizer.



=E2=80=9CThe benefits of implementing measures to improve phosphorus

sustainability will be observed mostly at local to national scales,=E2=80=
=9D

says a report by the Our Phosphorus Future project. Citing input by over>
100 scientists, they warn =E2=80=9Cany delay will only accrue further impac=
ts

and societal costs.=E2=80=9D



America may soon face a day when an updated agriculture slogan emerges,

one reading, =E2=80=9CNo phosphate, no farmers, no food,=E2=80=9D but with =
dead soil and

Dust Bowl-style famine facing millions, we won=E2=80=99t need a bumper stic=
ker

to tell us that phosphogeddon has arrived.

DEAN KARAYANIS

DEAN KARAYANIS



Mr. Karayanis worked for the king of talk radio, Rush Limbaugh, for over>
25 years with stints in TV news, on campaigns, and ghost/speechwriting

for a variety of newsmakers. He is the creator/host of the History

Author Show on iHeart Radio, producer of its documentary-style video

specials, and a contributor of political and social commentary for

various news organizations. He is a producer for the Clay Travis & Buck=


Sexton Show.

The New York Sun

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