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DATE 2015-04-01

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Key: Value:

Key: Value:

MESSAGE
DATE 2015-04-21
FROM Ruben Safir
SUBJECT Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] nukes in NYC

http://gawker.com/what-are-the-chances-a-nuclear-bomb-will-go-off-in-manh-1553051758


What Are The Chances a Nuclear Bomb Will Go Off in Manhattan?


2


hamilton_nolan


Hamilton Nolan

Profile Follow


Hamilton Nolan
Filed to: estimation

* disasters
* nyc
* nuclear bombs
* nukes
* death
* doom

3/27/14 3:46pm


What Are The Chances a Nuclear Bomb Will Go Off in Manhattan?

This week, President Obama mentioned

that he is "concerned" with "the prospect of a nuclear weapon going off
in Manhattan." What are the chances that that will happen in our
lifetime? Let's guess!

We know that there are many forces at work that would like to detonate a
nuclear device in Manhattan. We know that there is a black market

for nuclear materials. We know that such a catastrophe would make 9/11
look like child's play—this piece, for example, estimates more than
800,000 deaths from a 150-kiloton nuclear bomb (the size of a US nuclear
cruise missile) detonated in Times Square. (These things always assume
the bomb will detonate in Times Square. It is a fair assumption. Even
New York City residents often dream of detonating a bomb in Times Square.)

We know it would be bad. What we don't know is how likely such an attack
really is. Is it a total impossibility? A faint outlier of a chance? Or
a near inevitability, given the extent of our enemies in the world? Your
answer will depend on your knowledge of geopolitics, your personal views
on human nature, and your general confidence in the accuracy of your own
uninformed opinions.

I put the chances at 68% at some point in my lifetime.

Put your own estimates in the discussion section below. When it happens,
none of your guesses will matter.

[/Pic //via/ ]

2

Reply



  1. 2015-04-01 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] omp pthread madness
  2. 2015-04-02 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: omp pthread madness
  3. 2015-04-02 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Re: omp pthread madness
  4. 2015-04-02 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: [New discussion] which technologies/skills are good to have
  5. 2015-04-02 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: omp pthread madness
  6. 2015-04-02 mrbrklyn-at-panix.com Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] [LinuxJournalservices-at-linuxjournalservices.com: Free Geek
  7. 2015-04-02 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Fw: Perl Developer / Linux SysAdmin Opportunities in South Florida
  8. 2015-04-07 Elfen Magix <elfen_magix-at-yahoo.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Low Cost or Free Raspberry Pi's?
  9. 2015-04-07 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Let My People Go
  10. 2015-04-08 Rick Moen <rick-at-linuxmafia.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] (forw) Re: DistroWatch.com: Put the fun back into computing. Use
  11. 2015-04-08 adrba-at-nyct.net Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Let My People Go
  12. 2015-04-08 adrba-at-nyct.net Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] JOUNAL MEETING AT 10AM TOMORROW
  13. 2015-04-08 Steven Ovadia <steve.ovadia-at-gmail.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Explore Privacy Issues at the LACUNY Institute!
  14. 2015-04-09 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Re: Kernel thread scheduling
  15. 2015-04-09 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Re: Kernel thread scheduling
  16. 2015-04-10 Elfen Magix <elfen_magix-at-yahoo.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Bulk Raspberry Pi Deal A Failure.
  17. 2015-04-12 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Kernel Hacking Workshop - Focusing on the CFS Scheduler
  18. 2015-04-13 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Schedule Meetings
  19. 2015-04-13 Robert Menes <viewtiful.icchan-at-gmail.com> Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Schedule Meetings
  20. 2015-04-13 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Kernel Hacking Resources
  21. 2015-04-14 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Invitation: Vintage Computer Festival
  22. 2015-04-14 einker <eminker-at-gmail.com> Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Invitation: Vintage Computer Festival
  23. 2015-04-15 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Monday: Join 121 HackerNestologists at "HackerNest NYC April
  24. 2015-04-15 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] [ruben-at-mrbrklyn.com: Re: Heap Management Problem]
  25. 2015-04-15 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: [HackerNestNYC] Security Info for Monday's HackerNest NYC
  26. 2015-04-15 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Re: [LIU Comp Sci] BASh Shell Scripting
  27. 2015-04-16 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Schedule Meetings
  28. 2015-04-16 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] linsched
  29. 2015-04-16 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Re: virtualbox
  30. 2015-04-16 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Re: Kernel thread scheduling
  31. 2015-04-17 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Kernel Scheduling Project
  32. 2015-04-17 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Graduate School goes in circles
  33. 2015-04-17 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Come Sunday Morning
  34. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Re: The more I learn the less I know
  35. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] interesting jobs
  36. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] marco typeof and 0
  37. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Summers Here
  38. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Re: [LIU Comp Sci] Fwd: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Summers Here
  39. 2015-04-19 Ruben <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Re: [LIU Comp Sci] Fwd: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Summers Here
  40. 2015-04-19 Elfen Magix <elfen_magix-at-yahoo.com> Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Summers Here
  41. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Syria and Sarin Gas
  42. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] extract video
  43. 2015-04-19 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Syria and Sarin Gas
  44. 2015-04-20 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] sytemd crimes
  45. 2015-04-20 Ruben <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] OS Homework
  46. 2015-04-21 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Skinner Box
  47. 2015-04-21 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Business children and Privacy
  48. 2015-04-21 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] nukes in NYC
  49. 2015-04-21 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] nukes in NYC
  50. 2015-04-21 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Nukes over NYC
  51. 2015-04-24 adrba-at-nyct.net Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Summers Here LET'S
  52. 2015-04-25 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fwd: Kernel Scheduling and wait queues
  53. 2015-04-26 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] While the weather is heating up ...
  54. 2015-04-27 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Re: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] While the weather is heating up ...
  55. 2015-04-27 mrbrklyn-at-panix.com Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] [info-at-fsf.org: DMCA exemption commenting process broken beyond
  56. 2015-04-28 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Re: Arduino article for next Linux Journal
  57. 2015-04-28 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] final project - Linux Scheduler
  58. 2015-04-29 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] trolling newsgroupds
  59. 2015-04-30 Ruben Safir <mrbrklyn-at-panix.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] usenet and systemd
  60. 2015-04-30 Elfen Magix <elfen_magix-at-yahoo.com> Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] NYC ROBO Conference

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