MESSAGE
| DATE | 2016-11-10 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout-NYLXS] Tech and Trump
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This one is for the Archives for future reference
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37932661
What Trump means for tech
Dave Lee North America technology reporter
10 November 2016
From the section Technology comments
Image copyright Getty Images
Now the shock is beginning to subside, attention is moving to how Donald
Trump's policies will play out over his four, possibly eight-year stint
as president.
Barack Obama's policies on technology were considered pro-innovation,
with a view to using technology expertise to improve government systems
and services.
Aside from a disastrous and expensive roll-out of healthcare.gov, those
efforts appear to have been well-received.
With Mr Trump, the future leaves many uncertainties. While we can draw a
lot from what he has said in the past, more difficult is separating
freewheeling campaigning Trump from measured, lawmaking Trump.
Much of the detail below comes from research carried out by the
Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a US-based non-profit
group.
It pulled together a report on what Mr Trump has said and pledged when
it comes to technology. When lacking in specifics, the report authors
drew from attitudes in other areas in an attempt to predict what may
happen. You can read the report for yourself here.
Privacy and encryption
The issue:
In the wake of the shootings in San Bernardino, the FBI called on Apple
to weaken the encryption on its iPhone in order to assist the
investigation into the shooters. The company refused, saying the
personal privacy of its users should take precedent. That stance was
backed by the majority of the tech community, but not by Mr Trump. User
privacy when using technology is a battleground that will continually
rear its head during Mr Trump's term. Today many people are concerned
about his views on the surveillance state.
In his own words:
"Boycott Apple until such time as they give that information." (Campaign
rally, February 2016)
"I would come down so hard on [Apple chief executive Tim Cook] his head
would be spinning all of the way back to Silicon Valley." (Bloomberg
interview, February 2016)
The call to boycott Apple over the encryption row seemed very much in
the heat of the moment. Indeed, Mr Trump said "I just thought of that"
during the rally. It wasn't a boycott that was taken seriously - even
tweets on Mr Trump's Twitter account were shown to have come from Apple
devices (even if Mr Trump himself is understood to use an Android device).
When speaking about the controversial power of the NSA and it's
surveillance capabilities, Mr Trump said:
"I assume when I pick up my telephone, people are listening to my
conversations anyway, if you want to know the truth. It's pretty sad
commentary, but I err on the side of security. When you have people that
are beheading [you] if you're a Christian and, frankly, for lots of
other reasons, when you have the world looking at us and would like to
destroy us as quickly as possible, I err on the side of security."
(Speaking on Hugh Hewitt radio show, December 2015)
What it means:
We don't really know. Attitudes towards "America First" and support of
the military might have assumptions leaning towards Mr Trump at least
maintaining the power of the security services in the US, but we're yet
to hear firm policy on the specifics. Mr Trump has said he wants to
restore the Patriot Act at which, among other things, used to give the
NSA powers to collect bulk data on American's phone records until that
power was taken away by Congress. As with previous administrations, we
can expect the war on terror to be the primary justification for these
powers to exist. When it comes to encryption, the Apple row gave Mr
Trump a chance to make his thoughts perfectly clear, and while the
boycott may have been flippant, his attitudes seem firmly set on
supposed security over privacy.
Bringing foreign talent to Silicon Valley
The issue:
One point of concern for tech firms is the future of the H1-B visa.
The H1-B is considered vital for technology companies that want to fill
their ranks with skilled developers and engineers. It's a temporary
residency, but companies can choose to sponsor employees to remain in
the US indefinitely.
In his own words:
"I know the H-1B very well. And it's something that I, frankly, use, and
I shouldn't be allowed to use it. We shouldn't have it. Very, very bad
for workers. And second of all, I think it's very important to say,
well, I'm a businessman and I have to do what I have to do. When it's
sitting there waiting for you, but it's very bad. It's very bad for
business in terms of — and it's very bad for our workers and it's unfair
for our workers. And we should end it." (CNN Republican debate, March 2016)
Mr Trump has been seen to have done a U-turn. He seems to believe the
H1-B visa is being abused to bring in cheaper labour, rather than
skilled labour. He cited an example in Florida where he said American
workers at a Disney theme park were being forced to train their cheaper,
foreign replacements.
What it means:
Mr Trump is in favour of highly-skilled immigration, particularly when
immigrants have come in to study at top US colleges. It seems likely he
will either alter or abolish the H1-B visa and attempt to enforce an
alternative that clamps down on what he sees as abuses of the current
system.
America's readiness for cyberwar
The issue:
Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent, more powerful, and more
dangerous. Forrester Research on Wednesday predicted that "within the
first 100 days, the new president will face a cybercrisis".
And so while much debate in the run up to the election was about Mr
Trump's possible control of the nuclear codes, there've been questions
over how he'd handle the growing cyber threat from the likes of China,
Russia and stateless hacking groups.
In his own words:
"It is a huge problem. I have a son - he's 10 years old. He has
computers. He is so good with these computers. It's unbelievable. The
security aspect of cyber is very, very tough. And maybe, it's hardly
doable. But I will say, we are not doing the job we should be doing. But
that's true throughout our whole governmental society. We have so many
things that we have to do better. And certainly cyber is one of them."
(Presidential debate, September 2016)
The quote above was widely mocked as being utterly incoherent. The New
York Daily News called it "an out-of-touch comment that would come from
your tech-illiterate grandpa".
Mr Trump was also reluctant to follow the FBI's lead in blaming Russia
for hacking the Democratic National Convention - one of several
cyberattacks that were arguably pivotal in winning the race for Mr Trump.
But Mr Trump certainly wouldn't be the first person in power to have a
lacklustre understanding of how technology works, and so it's broad
policy rather than expertise that is most important.
What it means:
Unlike traditional war, where observers can see jets in the sky or tanks
rolling across land, cyberwar is much harder to track. It may be that we
never learn Mr Trump's precise thoughts on the USA's cyberattack
capabilities, and they could be enacted in secret.
His campaign website provides vague descriptions of what his
administration would do, including an "immediate review of all US cyber
defences and vulnerabilities".
He's also said he wanted to develop the US's offensive capabilities so
the country could retaliate against cyberattack. This wouldn't be
unprecedented as cyberweapons have been used by the US in the past.
Net Neutrality
The issue:
For some time a debate has raged over the control of internet traffic.
Internet Service Providers (ISPs) have called for the ability to provide
what would essentially be an internet fast-lane for major,
data-intensive services like Netflix. The ISPs would seek to charge the
companies to be on this fast-lane, a move described by most in the
technology community as extremely anticompetitive and against the spirit
of the internet itself. As it stands, we have net neutrality - all
traffic on the internet is treated equally.
In his own words:
"Obama's attack on the internet is another top down power grab. Net
neutrality is the Fairness Doctrine. Will target the conservative
media." (Twitter, August 2016)
This statement appeared to display a deep ignorance of what net
neutrality is. The Fairness Doctrine was a policy in the US which
required broadcasters to present a range of views on important topics,
like politics. It was overturned in 1987, allowing TV channels to push
forward whatever view they want (and the rest is history). Mr Trump's
linking of the Fairness Doctrine to Net Neutrality is baffling, as
strong net neutrality would favour more views beyond the mainstream
media he loves to hate.
What it means:
If we take the above tweet as evidence that Mr Trump has probably not
spent much time considering Net Neutrality, then it's fair to say it's
probably not at the forefront of his mind and therefore not high on his
list of priorities once taking office. Lower down the pecking order, the
US court system has come out in favour of neutrality principles.
The AT&T-Time Warner mega-deal
The issue:
Telecoms giant AT&T is set to buy Time Warner, thus becoming even more
giant.
In his own words:
"As an example of the power structure I'm fighting, AT&T is buying Time
Warner and thus CNN, a deal we will not approve in my administration
because it's too much concentration of power in the hands of too few."
(Speech, October 2016)
It's a fair point about a large concentration of power. AT&T would not
only control the biggest network providing information to the masses,
but also much of the content they were creating and broadcasting. Time
Warner owns HBO and Warner Bros, not to mention CNN, a news outlet
attacked repeatedly by Mr Trump and his supporters during campaigning.
AT&T-Time Warner isn't the only deal he's taken aim at, either:
"Comcast's purchase of NBC concentrated far too much power in one
massive entity that is trying to tell the voters what to think and what
to do. Deals like this destroy democracy and we'll look at breaking that
deal up and other deals like that. That should never, ever have been
approved in the first place, they're trying to poison the mind of the
American voter." (Speech, October 2016)
What it means:
Another "wait and see", unfortunately. At this point, there's just no
way of deciphering whether Campaign Trump is the same as President Trump.
If Mr Trump did want to follow through on his words, it wouldn't simply
be a case of stepping in and calling a halt. It would be a long,
expensive process through the courts that would make Mr Trump look
distinctly anti-business. This would especially be the case if the
government went after Comcast some five years after it bought NBC.
On Wednesday AT&T offered an olive branch with this rather flattering
statement: "From a company perspective, we really look forward to
working with President-elect Trump and his transition team.
"His policies and his discussions about infrastructure investment,
economic development, and American innovation all fit right in with
AT&T's goals."
Amazon's future
This issue:
If Mr Trump and Jeff Bezos were rappers, you'd call this a "beef".
Mr Trump has made no effort to hide his disdain for Mr Bezos, the
billionaire founder of Amazon.
Mr Bezos also owns the Washington Post, the newspaper that perhaps did
more than any other to take on Mr Trump's campaign.
The newspaper was the first to publish the infamous video of Mr Trump
making disparaging remarks about women and bragging about sexual assault.
Mr Trump considers Amazon to be a company that is avoiding tax and is
anti-competitive.
In his own words:
"Amazon is getting away with murder tax-wise. [Bezos is] using the
Washington Post for power so that the politicians in Washington don't
tax Amazon like they should be taxed." (Sean Hannity Show, Fox News, May
2016)
In various tweets, Mr Trump also suggested that Mr Bezos was using the
Washington Post, which like many newspapers loses money, as a way of
reducing Amazon's tax bill. However, the Washington Post isn't part of
Amazon - it's a company Mr Bezos owns privately, so such a move would
not be possible.
That said, Amazon is part of a technology collective that goes to great
lengths to pay as little tax as possible, prompting law changes in
several parts of the world.
Ironically, using big losses as a way to avoid paying taxes is precisely
what Mr Trump has done for much of his professional life, a move he said
made him "smart".
What it means:
Mr Trump's tweets were an example of the next president taking the bait.
The insults followed Mr Bezos saying he'd gladly fund a rocket that
would take Mr Trump on a one-way trip into space.
So while Mr Bezos may now regret starting the #SendDonaldToSpace
hashtag, we don't know if Mr Trump will see through his threat to single
out Amazon. What's more likely is a clamp down on tax avoidance across
the board, with a likely focus on the myriad inventive ways tech
companies relocate their earnings.
Regardless, Amazon's stock dropped on Wednesday in anticipation for what
might be on the horizon. While other tech stocks also went down, none
were quite as pronounced as Amazon.
The future of energy tech
The issue:
A key area of growth in the US is in renewable energies and businesses
built around it. But to accelerate growth of companies like Tesla, the
US government has long offered attractive subsidies as a way of tempting
in customers who ordinarily could not afford renewable energy.
In his own words:
"The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in
order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive." (Twitter, November 2012)
One of Mr Trump's strongest areas of support was in the so-called coal
country area, traditionally populated by coal mines and industries. The
region has suffered as concern about climate change pushed governments
to embrace renewable energy instead.
Mr Trump turned that on its head by calling climate change a hoax,
playing to a crowd that would not notice, nor care, about the
incremental changes in climate the Earth is going through.
What it means:
Mr Trump has pledged to "unleash America's $50 trillion in untapped
shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, plus hundreds of years in clean
coal reserves", and the money for it may in part come from ditching
subsidies offered to renewable energy efforts.
It may mean that tax credits given to people buying electric cars are no
longer be offered. At the moment, a Tesla Model 3, for instance, is
reduced from $35,000 to $27,500 when tax credits are factored in.
In the immediate future, Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, who said Mr
Trump was "not the right guy" for the White House, may have a even
tougher job convincing Tesla shareholders to push forward with his plan
to buy solar panel company SolarCity. The vote on that takes place later
this month.
What all of this means together...
Uncertainty, frustration and an increased fragility for the global home
of tech innovation.
Mr Trump certainly won't want to go down as the president who destroyed
Silicon Valley, but the concern here is that of the few policies that
have been explained in detail, some seem directly at odds with each other.
How do you promote "great" American companies which provide jobs, while
simultaneously dragging Amazon, a massive employer and innovator,
through the courts? How do you protect innovation at Tesla when taking
aim at efforts to curb climate change?
Silicon Valley may be in America, but it's by no means an entirely
American success story. The region's success grew out of being an
attractive, progressive destination for the best brains in the world.
This industry worries that may be under threat.
--
So many immigrant groups have swept through our town
that Brooklyn, like Atlantis, reaches mythological
proportions in the mind of the world - RI Safir 1998
http://www.mrbrklyn.com
DRM is THEFT - We are the STAKEHOLDERS - RI Safir 2002
http://www.nylxs.com - Leadership Development in Free Software
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Being so tracked is for FARM ANIMALS and and extermination camps,
but incompatible with living as a free human being. -RI Safir 2013
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