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| DATE | 2020-05-07 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] How can one fight a epidemic with a collapsed
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/business/economy/coronavirus-unemployment-claims.html
nytimes.com
For Workers, No Sign of ‘What Normal Is Going to Look Like’
By Patricia Cohen and Tiffany Hsu
15-19 minutes
Initial steps to reopen businesses have yet to offset continuing job
losses, with a “secondary wave” of layoffs hitting white-collar industries.
A job center in Jackson, Miss. On Thursday, the Labor Department
reported nearly 3.2 million new unemployment claims.
Credit...Courtland Wells for The New York Times
May 7, 2020Updated 5:23 p.m. ET
With unemployment claims surpassing 33 million since March, the nation’s
near-term economic outlook hinges on whether patchwork reopenings can
mend the coronavirus pandemic’s damage — and how soon.
Nearly 3.2 million were added to state jobless rolls last week, the
Labor Department said Thursday, and economists expect the monthly jobs
report on Friday to put the April unemployment rate at 15 percent or
higher — a Depression-era level.
But even a figure of that magnitude will almost certainly understate the
calamity. Officials in some states say more than a quarter of their work
force is unemployed. And experts say it is impossible to calculate how
many jobs might come back as states lift shelter-in-place rules.
“We don’t know what normal is going to look like,” said Martha Gimbel,
an economist and a labor market expert at Schmidt Futures, a
philanthropic initiative.
The biggest questions are how many workers will be willing to go back,
how many businesses will have full-time jobs for them, and how quickly
customers will return to the shopping and spending habits that stoke the
consumer-driven economy.
In addition to weighing the risk of exposure to the virus, some laid-off
workers face the prospect of making less on the job than they do on
unemployment — including a temporary $600 weekly supplement enacted in a
flurry of federal emergency legislation.
At the same time, many employers may not survive, particularly small
ones, while others are likely to operate with reduced hours and staff.
And most Americans remain uneasy about the moves to reopen, with 67
percent saying they would be uncomfortable going into a store and 78
percent saying they would be uncomfortable eating at a restaurant,
according to a survey that The Washington Post and the University of
Maryland released this week.
“States want to relaunch their economies, but they’re going to be doing
so in an environment of high unemployment, reduced income and fear,”
said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “It’s not a
matter of saying, ‘Hey, go out and spend.’ It’s a matter of people being
able to and wanting to.”
While restaurant, travel, hospitality and retail workers were among the
first to lose their jobs, layoffs have become more widespread in recent
weeks, affecting engineers at Uber, advertising account executives at
Omnicom, designers at Airbnb and other office employees.
“We’re still seeing a massive wave of layoffs taking over the U.S.
economy,” Mr. Daco said. He described the latest job losses as a
“secondary wave of the coronavirus recession.”
The different speeds of a return to everyday commerce were evident
Thursday in Michigan, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said factories could
reopen next week but extended the closing of nonessential businesses —
and an order for residents to venture outside only for essential
purposes — from mid-May until May 28.
Utah began reopening businesses last Friday, so jobless claims filed
this week “might be the first indication of some change,” Brooke Porter
Coles, a spokeswoman for the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said
in an email. “It’s just too early to tell.”
Alaska was one of the first to begin reopening its economy, allowing
limited gatherings at graduations, day camps, gyms and other sites
starting on April 24. But officials there are nervous about the summer,
when 86 percent of the state’s visitors arrive, mostly on cruise ships.
Several major cruise lines have canceled trips to Alaska through the end
of the year, and many seasonal jobs are expected not to materialize.
Nonetheless, as restrictions are lifted, employees who refuse calls to
return to work without “good cause” will lose access to unemployment
benefits, state officials have said.
Pockets of labor demand have been driven by the pandemic. Amazon said it
would hire 100,000 warehouse and delivery workers, and retailers like
Walmart and Lowe’s said they were filling tens of thousands of
positions. The staffing company ManpowerGroup reported more than five
million openings this week for new or existing jobs, notably in
logistics, health, sales, information technology and accounting.
But Mr. Daco said many across the country who had managed to stay on a
payroll had lower incomes. A lot of companies have scheduled them to
work part time, reduced wages or deferred paychecks. Others are
experimenting with job sharing.
Image
Credit...OK McCausland for The New York Times
Image
Credit...Brett Carlsen for The New York Times
Michele Capamaggio, 38, said she returned to her retail job in a small
North Carolina town on Wednesday to avoid being put on a flexible
schedule or fired, losing access to her benefits. The store is limiting
its open hours, so she is earning a fraction of the income she received
from the government while furloughed.
“Basically, I had to go back,” Ms. Capamaggio said over direct messages
on Twitter during a 30-minute work break. “Just hurts that I could be
making $900 a week at home but will only make $500 a week busting my
butt at work and putting myself at risk.”
Still, there are workers eager to return to their jobs.
Nicky Koutsoumbas, 19, earned more from government aid in April than she
did in an average month working at a camera shop in Las Vegas, receiving
$700 a week in unemployment benefits and $1,200 in stimulus money from
the I.R.S. That helped pad her savings, which she hopes to use to move
out of her parents’ house.
“I thought about the money — it crossed my mind,” she said when the shop
asked her to return this week. “But I want life to go back to normal, to
go to work, to be surrounded by my co-workers, to have something to do.”
Image
Nicky Koutsoumbas said she looked forward to returning to her Las Vegas
job even though her unemployment benefits exceeded her pay.
Credit...Joe Buglewicz for The New York Times
But even as people like Ms. Koutsoumbas venture back into the work
force, jobless claims keep pouring in. Unemployment offices have
scrambled to hire more workers, upgrade computers and add call centers,
but are still struggling to process the crush. Applicants complain they
have trouble just getting into the system. Many who filed successfully
for benefits say there are gaps in their payments, even if they certify
their jobless status each week.
Checks have also been slow in coming.
Alexander Talley, 28, filed for unemployment benefits almost eight weeks
ago, immediately after he was furloughed on March 13 from his serving
job at a high-end restaurant in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. He received
nothing until April 28, when $1,300 in retroactive payments from the
Florida Department of Economic Opportunity appeared in his bank account.
So far, only 43 percent of the more than one million Floridians filing
verified claims have begun to receive benefits.
“It was absolutely terrible,” Mr. Talley said of filing his claim and
waiting for the payment. He didn’t have a laptop, so he had to conduct
the process on his iPhone. Often, he said, he felt lost. “The only
information I was able to find to keep myself from going absolutely
crazy was Twitter and Facebook.”
He began receiving the weekly $600 federal supplement last week.
His landlord threatened to end his month-to-month lease after he and his
partner at the time were able to pay only a portion of April’s rent, so
Mr. Talley’s father stepped in with the rest. His parents have sent
Amazon and Publix gift cards and cash, and he has taken advantage of
food giveaways of rice and pasta. A few weeks ago, he signed up for food
stamps.
“We don’t live a luxurious, lavish lifestyle by any means, but we take
care of our bills and we keep the fridge full,” Mr. Talley said. “We
went from that to instantly not knowing where our income is coming from.”
Keeping their residents afloat while the economy is shut down is putting
enormous strain on states. Nine, including California, Illinois, New
York, Ohio and Texas, have borrowed from the federal government to
reinforce their unemployment insurance trust funds. In the wake of the
last recession, 36 states had to borrow $40 billion.
“States will be able to make these payments but will spend many years
paying off these debts,” said Jared Walczak, director of state tax
policy at the Tax Foundation. “Employers are going to have to pay higher
taxes in the future” to repay those debts, which could be a drag during
a recovery, he said.
Updated April 11, 2020
What should I do if I feel sick?
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and
have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a
doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how
to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially
infecting or exposing others.
When will this end?
This is a difficult question, because a lot depends on how well
the virus is contained. A better question might be: “How will we know
when to reopen the country?” In an American Enterprise Institute report,
Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark B. McClellan, Lauren Silvis and
Crystal Watson staked out four goal posts for recovery: Hospitals in the
state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring
hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care; the
state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms; the
state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts; and
there must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.
How can I help?
The Times Neediest Cases Fund has started a special campaign to
help those who have been affected, which accepts donations here. Charity
Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a
running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the
outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World
Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities. More
than 30,000 coronavirus-related GoFundMe fund-raisers have started in
the past few weeks. (The sheer number of fund-raisers means more of them
are likely to fail to meet their goal, though.)
Should I wear a mask?
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks
if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting
new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who
have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised
that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and
coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for
health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in
continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social
distancing.
How do I get tested?
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new
coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare
provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you
need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a
lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you
won’t be able to get tested.
How does coronavirus spread?
It seems to spread very easily from person to person, especially
in homes, hospitals and other confined spaces. The pathogen can be
carried on tiny respiratory droplets that fall as they are coughed or
sneezed out. It may also be transmitted when we touch a contaminated
surface and then touch our face.
Is there a vaccine yet?
No. Clinical trials are underway in the United States, China and
Europe. But American officials and pharmaceutical executives have said
that a vaccine remains at least 12 to 18 months away.
What makes this outbreak so different?
Unlike the flu, there is no known treatment or vaccine, and
little is known about this particular virus so far. It seems to be more
lethal than the flu, but the numbers are still uncertain. And it hits
the elderly and those with underlying conditions — not just those with
respiratory diseases — particularly hard.
What if somebody in my family gets sick?
If the family member doesn’t need hospitalization and can be
cared for at home, you should help him or her with basic needs and
monitor the symptoms, while also keeping as much distance as possible,
according to guidelines issued by the C.D.C. If there’s space, the sick
family member should stay in a separate room and use a separate
bathroom. If masks are available, both the sick person and the caregiver
should wear them when the caregiver enters the room. Make sure not to
share any dishes or other household items and to regularly clean
surfaces like counters, doorknobs, toilets and tables. Don’t forget to
wash your hands frequently.
Should I stock up on groceries?
Plan two weeks of meals if possible. But people should not hoard
food or supplies. Despite the empty shelves, the supply chain remains
strong. And remember to wipe the handle of the grocery cart with a
disinfecting wipe and wash your hands as soon as you get home.
Can I go to the park?
Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and
people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park,
rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and
hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.
Should I pull my money from the markets?
That’s not a good idea. Even if you’re retired, having a
balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds so that your money keeps up with
inflation, or even grows, makes sense. But retirees may want to think
about having enough cash set aside for a year’s worth of living expenses
and big payments needed over the next five years.
What should I do with my 401(k)?
Watching your balance go up and down can be scary. You may be
wondering if you should decrease your contributions — don’t! If your
employer matches any part of your contributions, make sure you’re at
least saving as much as you can to get that “free money.”
--
So many immigrant groups have swept through our town
that Brooklyn, like Atlantis, reaches mythological
proportions in the mind of the world - RI Safir 1998
http://www.mrbrklyn.com
DRM is THEFT - We are the STAKEHOLDERS - RI Safir 2002
http://www.nylxs.com - Leadership Development in Free Software
http://www.brooklyn-living.com
Being so tracked is for FARM ANIMALS and extermination camps,
but incompatible with living as a free human being. -RI Safir 2013
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